Cynthia H. Whaley et al. – submitted to GMD – preprint
Preprint is available at:
GMDD – HTAP3 Fires: Towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts (copernicus.org)
Abstract.
Open biomass burning has significant impacts globally and regionally on atmospheric composition. Fire emissions include particulate matter, tropospheric ozone precursors, greenhouse gases, persistent organic pollutants, mercury and other metals. Fire frequency, intensity, duration, and location are changing as the climate warms, and modelling these fires and their impacts are becoming increasingly critical to inform climate adaptation and mitigation and land management. Indeed, air pollution from fires can reverse the progress made by emission controls of anthropogenic sources. At the same time, nearly all aspects of fire modelling – such as emissions, plume injection height, long-range transport, and plume chemistry – are highly uncertain.
A multi-model, multi-pollutant, multi-regional study would be instrumental in improving understanding of the uncertainties and variability in fire atmospheric science, simulations, and its impacts, in addition to providing quantitative estimates on the air pollution and radiative impacts of biomass burning. Coordinated under the auspices of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the international atmospheric modelling and fire science communities are working towards the common goal of improving global fire modelling and using this multi-model experiment to provide estimates of fire pollution for impact and assessment studies.
This paper outlines the research needs, opportunities, and options for fire-focused multi-model experiments. It guides these modelling experiments, outputs, and analyses to be pursued over the next 3 to 5 years. It proposes a plan for delivering specific products at key points over this period to meet important milestones relevant to science and policy audiences.